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Post by Banjo on Mar 6, 2014 7:20:31 GMT 7
I suspect that some of those Asian currencies mentioned in one of the links above, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong... are strengthening as their economies return to the pre-1999 economic collapse position.
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Post by Denis-NFA on Mar 6, 2014 8:12:19 GMT 7
I suspect that some of those Asian currencies mentioned in one of the links above, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong... are strengthening as their economies return to the pre-1999 economic collapse position. That's a good point Banjo. If anyone wants to read up on the recipe for a massive devaluation of a currency it is instructive to go and read some of the summaries of "The Asian Financial Crisis" of 1997. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisiswww.economist.com/node/9432495
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Post by zorro1 on Mar 6, 2014 8:15:23 GMT 7
Nice chart showing where the tourist value is. Doesn't have a slot for the Philippines though. Time to move to Indonesia?
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Post by Banjo on Mar 6, 2014 8:36:15 GMT 7
I suspect that some of those Asian currencies mentioned in one of the links above, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong... are strengthening as their economies return to the pre-1999 economic collapse position. That's a good point Banjo. If anyone wants to read up on the recipe for a massive devaluation of a currency it is instructive to go and read some of the summaries of "The Asian Financial Crisis" of 1997. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisiswww.economist.com/node/9432495It shows how little Banjo knows about economics because he never understands why that when conservative governments take over after this type of situation and introduce spending cuts and "belt tightening" to fix things and ten years down the track the economy is still a basket case but the rich seem to have picked up everyone else's money.
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Post by Denis-NFA on Mar 6, 2014 13:50:44 GMT 7
I think it's called "Globalization"
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2014 0:30:30 GMT 7
Nice chart showing where the tourist value is. Doesn't have a slot for the Philippines though. Time to move to Indonesia? That's what i thought ... Then i realized that it only shows the past ... Does not tell us what currency's the Aussie $ will be strong against in the next 12 months. The Australian dollar is a reserve Currency now .... it was not back in early 2013. Hell just look at the prices quoted for the Euro. ..... & the British pound is not even there. It sez the Aussie is down 18.6% against the Euro ... & that maybe true ... But the fact is the Aussie is trading at around 66 cents against the Euro & that is still historically high. & with the collapse of the Euro zone the Aussie dollar ( one of only 5 reserve currency's in the world could rise even higher ) Especially if the Euro zone breaks up in the next few years ... Security: UK 'must plan for euro collapse' www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17295461
Switzerland draws up eurozone collapse action plan www.news.com.au/finance/business/switzerland-draws-up-eurozone-collapse-action-plan/story-e6frfkur-1226369003871
Can Germany afford eurozone collapse? www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20322746
If the Euorzone collapses then so will the Euro.
& Given whats going on in Europe with the E.U / USA regarding' Ukraine & Russia.
I would hold onto my Australian dollars for a while longer if it where me. Might just get a better deal somewhere down the road.
& the same goes for the British pound.
as at 7/03/2014 ....... 1 Australian dollar = 54 british pence.
Now sure 54 pence to the Aussie is high compared to the 30 pence to the Aussie that we saw in the early 2000's ..... but 54 to the Aussie is still low compaired to a year ago or so ..... (( b4 the Aussie became a reserve currency ))
& if you cheakout the Australian =V= Pound outlook .... well it could go either way .... some beleve the pound will rise again while the Aussie will fall to 40 cents against the U.S dollar.
& some think the Aussie will never fall below 80C against the U.S or 50 pence against the pound because of Australia's strong economy, large mining industrys & the rise of Asia as a world power. Combined with the fact the Aussie is now a reserve currency.
Me .... im somewhere in the middle in that ... i dont care either way .... Change all my money into Asian currencys would be stupid. & as for the U.S $ the Euro & the Pound .... it does not matter what their worth. it makes no different.
Fact ...
The Aussie was/is high against the yen & U.S dollar.
The Euro is high against the U.S dollar.
The N.Z dollar is expected to rise abouve the Aussie dollar by 2015.
If the Australian dollar rises against the U.S ... the buy us dollars.
If the Aussie falls against the U.S $ then buy Euros or N.Z dollars ..... & when the Aussie falls & the N.Z / Euro rises against the U.S $ ..... Change them for U.S dollars & then buy the Asian currency's.
Either way .... it's all the same.
Markets go up & markets go down. if you wont a good deal you just gotta look.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2014 0:48:09 GMT 7
The new currency order
2012.
China is moving towards a Gold backed yuan that will be very powerful in the international arena. Recently Australia, which is already completely dependent on China, with 30% of its exports going there, is preparing direct convertibility between the yuan and the Australian dollar, meaning they will no longer use US dollar to finance bilateral trade. This means less US dollars are needed in its reserve currency role.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2014 1:14:43 GMT 7
Aussie$ =V= British Pound
5. march 2014
The Australian Dollar exchange rate (currency:AUD) was given a boost during the overnight trading session with the publication of an encouraging set of Q4 Gross Domestic Product numbers which revealed that the Australian economy is expanding at a faster than anticipated annualised 2.8%.
So lets get this right .... The British are pissed because the Australian dollar is strong & outperforming the pound .... The british are questioning why the Aussie $ never falls below 50p .... & wondering why the Aussie does not fall back to 30p .... The U.K is going around claiming their economy is strong & their pound is strong & will crush the Australian dollar yet .... just wait an see.
British economists are sayiny that the British pound will out paform the Australian dollar ... & that the ten year trend from 2008-2018 show this to be true ... The pound will rise again.
& the 10 year bonds from 2013 - 2023 will prove this to be true. .... just wait until 2018n& 2023. you will see.
The 10 year outlook are you kidding me really ...
Europe will be history in 10 years & the U.K will be history in 12 months or less.
& when the U.K does collapses The so will the Pound ... & that will see the Australian dollar rise against the British pound 10 fold.
The Collapses of the U.K is nigh.
WITH the vote on Scottish independence just months away, political tensions are rising on both sides of the border. Although, in Kent, we are a long way from Scotland, this vote still matters to us, since it will affect the future of the whole UK.
Dissolving the union would bring a great many constitutional and practical complications. What currency would the Scots use, for example?
The three main parties this side of the border have ruled out the possibility of them continuing to use sterling. Anyway, the risks of sovereign states sharing a currency have been proven by the plight of the Eurozone.
There is already jockeying over oil and gas revenues from the waters around Britain – would they belong to Scotland or the rest of the UK, or should they be divided between the two?
As it is, reserves in the North Sea are now declining and it is uncertain whether enough remains to keep Scotland afloat in the long term.
Scottish Oil and Gas an Issue in Vote on Independence
www.nytimes.com/2014/02/25/world/europe/scot-oil-and-gas-an-issue-in-vote-on-independence.html?_r=0
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Post by Denis-NFA on Mar 7, 2014 18:29:49 GMT 7
@disturbed,
Keep talking the AUD$ up please.
Someone is listening to you because I have gained since you began to talk about the fundamentals.
Well done.
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Post by Banjo on Mar 7, 2014 18:54:13 GMT 7
Up about half a baht today.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2014 11:35:47 GMT 7
@disturbed, Keep talking the AUD$ up please. Someone is listening to you because I have gained since you began to talk about the fundamentals. Well done. Ill do what i can NFA! ........ LOL However ... i don't think their listening to me. (( I wish i had such influence over the global economy ))
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2014 11:46:42 GMT 7
Why the Aussie is a 'screaming buy': Economist
By: Katie Holliday | Writer for CNBC.com 9 Aug 2013
The battered Australian dollar is a popular short for currency traders at the moment, but one economist says the market has got it wrong and the Aussie is, in fact, a 'screaming buy.'
After plummeting over 12 percent this year and falling to fresh three-year lows of $0.88 on Monday, the currency has managed a rebound since, rising around 2.3 percent on stronger than expected data from China.
Clifford Bennett, chief economist at financial services firm White Crane Group in Sydney, says the currency has now hit bottom.
"The Australian dollar continues to fulfill our expectations of a fresh bull market… (it) is absolutely a screaming buy," said Bennett, who sees currency gaining another 13 percent by the year-end.
According to Bennett, many of the reasons to sell the currency are overplayed or "not happening" at all. Fears of a recession, for one, are unfounded and the economic slowdown is unlikely to last, he said.
This is because the country's mining boom, which helped drive Australia's rapid growth over the past decade, is not over, Bennett noted, and the upcoming Federal elections will provide the economy with a much needed catalyst for change.
(Read more: How low must the Aussie go before the RBA backs off?)
"The Australian people finally get a chance to have a say in who is their Prime Minister. And with the pent up potential for investment, due to caution over the politics of the nation, the last quarter and into next year is likely to see a very robust economy indeed," said Bennett.
Bennett expects the Australian economy to grow 4.5 percent in 2014, after growing at a 1.8 percent growth rate this year.
Another misconception is the impact the slowing China growth will have on Australia.
"China's manufacturing sector is not collapsing," said Bennett, and recent positive data seem to support his view. Chinese exports rose by 5.1 percent in July, while imports jumped 10.9 percent on Thursday, both figures coming in much better than expectations.
Part of Australian dollar's weakness has been attributed the strength in the U.S. dollar, which have been bolstered by upbeat economic data and the prospect of Federal Reserve winding down its monetary stimulus. But Bennett argues that the greenback will not stay strong for long.
(Read more: Australia's stock market is on 'fire')
"Market sentiment is that good data and tapering are positive for the greenback. The real fundamentals though are huge trade deficit, negligible yield, and rapidly increasing foreign investment overseas by U.S. organizations," he said.
Finally, the dovish rhetoric from the country's central bank has been a big factor behind the recent Aussie selloff; the currency fell 4 percent last week after Reserve Bank of Australia's governor Glenn Steven signaled room for more rate cuts.
The RBA cut rates to a record low of 2.5 percent last week and most analysts are forecasting another cut before the end of the year.
But Bennett said the move was already priced into the market, suggesting it should not provide a shock further down the line.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2014 12:04:49 GMT 7
Why the Aussie is a 'screaming buy': EconomistBy: Katie Holliday | Writer for CNBC.com 9 Aug 2013The RBA cut rates to a record low of 2.5 percent last week and most analysts are forecasting another cut before the end of the year.But Bennett said the move was already priced into the market, suggesting it should not provide a shock further down the line. Australia's GDP figures beat expectations
Consumers spending more and saving less have helped the Australian economy grow by a stronger than expected rate in the last three months of the year.
"There are some positive signs," federal Treasurer Joe Hockey said of the latest GDP figures.
The economy grew at a seasonally adjusted 0.8 per cent in the December quarter, taking the annual growth rate to 2.8 per cent. The quarterly figures were up from a 0.6 per cent expansion in the three months to September.
"I remain positive about the outlook for the Australian economy and the trends revealed today [show] we are headed in the right direction.
"[But the] numbers highlight the growth challenge that the economy will face in the next couple of years as construction on a number of large mining projects comes to an end."
The Australian dollar jumped nearly half a cent on the back of the stronger-than-expected figures to trade as high as US89.97 cents.
The fourth-quarter growth was driven by a 0.6 per cent boost from net exports and a 0.5 per cent contribution from consumption. A 0.3 per cent fall in investment offset some of the gains.
Australia has not fallen into recession - measured as two quarters of negative growth - for more than two decades, despite the impact of the Asian and global financial crises on the world's economies.
Australians spending more "While the wind-back in mining investment expected over the next couple of years will weigh on growth, there are some early signs that other sectors of the economy are starting to pick up," ANZ senior economist Felicity Emmett said.
"Housing investment is set to pick up strongly this year, household consumption spending looks to be trending higher, and the outlook for non-mining investment looks to be improving."
Household consumption improved slightly for the period to a seasonally adjusted 0.8 per cent, while government spending lifted by 0.3 per cent. At the same time, the household savings ratio slipped from its almost decade-highs to 9.7 per cent.
"It did come back a bit," National Australia Bank senior economist David de Garis said of the fall in the household savings ratio.
"Maybe that's a sign that consumers are a little bit less anxious towards the end of last year, but consumer sentiment has come off a bit since then, as we've had a lot of potentially destabilising news on corporate lay-offs."
Growth 'rebalancing' away from mining
Commonwealth Bank economist Diana Mousina said the data showed "a stronger indication that the mining to non-mining growth transition is proceeding".
"Today's data shows that residential construction activity picked up over the quarter, which is really supportive of the growth transition. The residential construction space is one of the areas that the RBA is trying to target as an offset to lower levels of mining construction."
"Nominal GDP really picked up quite significantly and that's very positive for government revenues and well as business hiring and capital expenditure plans, and that will translate into higher labour market hiring as well."
The mining, manufacturing, rental, hiring and property sectors contributed 0.1 per cent to GDP, while the terms of trade - a ratio that measures export prices to import prices - rose by 0.6 per cent.
Meanwhile, Australia's largest trading partner China said it would maintain a 7.5 per cent growth target for this year. China has held the same target over the past two years, with growth in the world's second economy seem as supportive for Australia.
"Given that GDP growth is expected to be 7.5 per cent for longer, we see this target as supportive for the Asian region, trade, and for commodity currencies more generally," TD Securities head of Asia-Pacific research Annette Beacher said
Challenges still ahead
Despite the improved growth rate, economists pointed out at the economy was still growing below the trend rate of 3 per cent, and that challenges remained ahead for Australia as mining investment fades.
"The terms of trade actually rose slightly in the quarter but are expected to fall this year and this will likely erode income," Citi economists Paul Brennan and Josh Williamson said.
"The Australian dollar is probably still too high," the Citi economists added. "Mining GDP is still rising, helped by increasing exports, but the projected halving of mining [capital expenditure] is still ahead."
Mr De Garis added that the figures showed that the domestic economy remained quite soft, with business investment contracting for the quarter.
"Consumer and business spending still remains on the cautious side," he said.
Economists had tipped the growth rate for the quarter to come in at 0.6 per cent, and for the year-on-year rate to be 2.5 per cent.
A series of indicators released over the past week that feed into the GDP figures have painted a mixed outlook for the economy.
Data released on Tuesday showed that net exports were expected to contribute 0.6 percentage points of growth to fourth-quarter GDP.
At the same time, business investment intentions projections for the 2014-15 reaffirmed expectations of a fall-off in mining firms' spending plans but pointed to a soft outlook for investment by non-resources companies.
Meanwhile, other partial GDP indicators showed reasonably strong growth in businesses' wages and profits.
Economists have said resources exports were expected to driven GDP growth, but that domestic demand remained weak.
Read more: www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australias-gdp-figures-beat-expectations-20140305-346c5.html#ixzz2vX76dZgM
'Whatever it takes': China sets 7.5% growth target for 2014 www.smh.com.au/business/china/whatever-it-takes-china-sets-75-growth-target-for-2014-20140305-346fn.html
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Post by Denis-NFA on Mar 10, 2014 20:43:39 GMT 7
@disturbed
If I may call you mate then I will say,
"Mate, do not doubt what you are saying".
I have been surprised how far a trivial off hand remark that I have made has surfaced.
I think you are doing an important thing.
Cheers NFA
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Post by Banjo on Mar 27, 2014 9:16:50 GMT 7
Strong dollar this morning.
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